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Great DD on XXII - Plant biotech company working with cannabis/tobacco/various other plants. Huge catalysts coming soon.

Great DD on XXII - Plant biotech company working with cannabis/tobacco/various other plants. Huge catalysts coming soon.

Image from 2/4
XXII is a plant biotechnology company working primarily with tobacco and hemp/cannabis.
"Our primary mission in tobacco is to reduce the harm caused by smoking by bringing our proprietary reduced nicotine content tobacco cigarettes – containing 95% less nicotine than conventional cigarettes – to adult smokers in the U.S. and international markets."
"Our primary mission in hemp/cannabis is to develop proprietary hemp/cannabis plants with valuable cannabinoid profiles and agronomic traits and to commercialize those plants through a synergistic portfolio of strategic partnerships in the hemp/cannabis industry."
XXII can achieve these things through methods mentioned in their patents. They have patents for controlling nicotine production in tobacco, but they also have patents to control the production of cannabinoids and terpenes in the cannabis plant.
"We are delighted to receive this patent, which is the result of work carried out by our own scientists. This important, new technology will allow us to genetically modify hemp/cannabis plants to modulate their cannabinoid and terpene profiles in order to tailor these plants’ therapeutic qualities and enhance the consumer’s hemp/cannabis experience," said Juan Sanchez Tamburrino, Ph.D., vice president of research & development at 22nd Century Group. "Our patent application describes eight promoters, which are essentially molecular on/off switches, covering all of the major steps in the cannabinoid biosynthesis pathway. Typically, developing hemp/cannabis plants with new cannabinoid or terpene profiles could take 10 to 20 years using traditional breeding methods. Now, with the combined technologies and know-how of 22nd Century and KeyGene, we expect to shorten the development timeline to create new, differentiated, hemp/cannabis plant lines in just 4 to 5 years. Doing so will provide the Company and its potential licensees and customers with significant competitive advantage as hemp/cannabis continues to penetrate the life science, consumer product, and pharmaceutical markets.”

“We are very pleased to receive this patent which reflects the ingenuity and expertise of our talented scientific team. This new technology allows us to reduce nicotine in any tobacco variety. Importantly, this breakthrough further demonstrates that the FDA’s Comprehensive Plan for Tobacco and Nicotine Regulation to limit the nicotine content of all cigarettes sold in the United States is technically feasible and at the same time refutes the claim from ‘Big Tobacco’ that such low nicotine levels cannot be achieved in multiple tobacco varieties,” said James A. Mish, chief executive officer of 22nd Century Group. “I am proud of the significant R&D gains we continue to make as we work to achieve our mission to reduce the harm caused by smoking and seek to significantly disrupt the $100 billion U.S. and the $800 billion global tobacco industries with our proprietary reduced nicotine tobacco products.”
The new patent and allowed claims, published as U.S. Patent No. 10,669,552 and entitled “Up-regulation of auxin response factor NbTF7 to decrease nicotine in a plant,” cover methods of manipulating plant metabolism and alkaloid levels by controlling transcription factor NbTF7, which regulates the nicotinic alkaloid biosynthetic pathway. The patent enables the Company’s use of next-generation gene modification technologies that afford greater flexibility for genetic control over nicotine levels in virtually any variety of the tobacco plant.

EDIT - 2/10/2021 -

22nd Century Group and KeyGene Launch Advanced Cannabis Technology Platform for Accelerated Development of New Varieties of Hemp/Cannabis Plants with Commercially Valuable Traits

"22nd Century Group announced today that it has developed and launched a new, cutting-edge technology platform that will enable the Company and its strategic partners to quickly identify and incorporate commercially valuable traits of hemp/cannabis plants to create new, stable hemp/cannabis lines. The platform incorporates a suite of proprietary molecular tools and a large library of genomic markers and gene-trait correlations. The platform was developed in collaboration with researchers at KeyGene, a global leader in plant research involving high-value genetic traits and increased crop yields.
This is a major breakthrough. Quickly and easily identifying the genes responsible for specific traits in a plant is a powerful tool for 22nd Century Group and the hemp/cannabis industry as a whole,” said James A. Mish, chief executive officer of 22nd Century Group. “That is why we are even now beginning discussions to license this platform to strategic partners to help them improve their plant breeding techniques and to optimize their hemp/cannabis cultivars. We continue to make great advancements through our partnership with KeyGene, and this newly developed molecular breeding platform has the potential to result in exponential growth for the Company’s revenues and create new value opportunities for our stakeholders, including shareholders.”
"Using this new breeding technology, 22nd Century has already characterized millions of high-value single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). SNPs are molecular markers or guideposts within a plant’s genome that indicate important variations in Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) sequences. Targeting these newly identified SNPs, 22nd Century was able to locate and isolate specific sections of genetic code from genome assemblies present in the Company’s state-of-the-art hemp/cannabis bioinformatics database. 22nd Century’s bioinformatics database continues to grow and already contains hundreds of hemp/cannabis genomes and thousands expression datapoints across a wide array of hemp/cannabis varieties and phenotypes. The ability to identify specific genetic variations allows researchers to isolate high-value traits, like increased CBD or tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) production, and then introduce those traits in new plant lines using modern plant breeding techniques, including trait tracking using molecular marker profiles and the Company’s proprietary accelerated breeding pipeline. "


Paul Rushton, the inventor behind the Cannabis patents for XXII, recently stated on linkedin that it's a good time to invest in XXII. He was a little sour that he wasn't mentioned for his work. :(

https://preview.redd.it/m54isyq0bsb61.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9b20bb531a27469b5610f45f6a9e5dc260e7c3d

https://preview.redd.it/wtjubwey54c61.png?width=566&format=png&auto=webp&s=a68bbb184fb806142f208e4f1f2ee4aa166c2483
I reached out to Paul to try and get an idea of how the cannabis patent works and how it could provide value for the company. Here was his response -

https://preview.redd.it/x3j9l88dyzc61.png?width=469&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6ba4ecf6b7e38661ac9a89f8bc9a58519e8b81e
XXII also works with hemp, the other side of marijuana. Using their patented processes, they are able to grow 0% THC hemp. Hemp was legalized in the 2018 farm bill and is determined by having less than .3% THC (the psychoactive chemical in marijuana). Hemp/Marijuana with more than that amount of THC is usually illegal to use and must be destroyed. Using XXII's patented process and technology, you can get a much more reliable hemp grow.
"Hemp crops are tested for THC levels; under U.S. federal law, crops containing above 0.3% THC are required to be destroyed. Currently, farmers cannot obtain crop insurance to protect against this risk. 22nd Century has developed a solution to this problem by creating industrial hemp plants that contain zero THC."
The Global Industrial Hemp Market size is expected to grow from USD 3,528.72 Million in 2019 to USD 18,812.81 Million by 2025 at a CAGR of 32.17% during the forecast period.

Onto their tobacco -
The idea behind their low-nicotine tobacco is VLN (Very Low Nicotine) cigarettes. 22nd Century has 18 publishes clinical studies, with another 27 clinical studies currently ongoing, (Heavily funded by the National Institute of Health, the National Institute on Drug Abuse, and the FDA.) that show that using VLN cigarettes lead to decreased nicotine consumption, decreased cigarettes smoked over time and increased quit attempts. Quit rates while using VLN + NRTs (Nicotine replacement therapies) were higher than when using NRTs alone. Withdrawals were less severe using VLN than using other NRTs.

https://preview.redd.it/2ns5nvopwah61.png?width=1283&format=png&auto=webp&s=f50778558daad2d24e61445985c82a41b28810a6
Here you can see that an immediate swap over to VLN can lead to a 50% reduction in CPD. Even dual-use of VLN with regular cigarettes leads to a decrease in CPD.
On top of this, studies were done to measure compensatory use in response to using VLN, and they show that compensatory smoking does not occur, even in vulnerable populations. Because cigarettes smoked per day decreases when using VLN, exposure to toxicants outside of just nicotine will also occur.
There is a rigorous process to put tobacco products on the market. First there is the PMTA (Pre market tobacco product application) which allows a company to put it’s products on the market. XXII received this approval in December 2019. They have not brought the product to market just yet because they want to make sure it can be labelled appropriately so consumers know what makes it different.
Then there is the MRTP (Modified risk tobacco product). This essentially allows the company to make specific claims in regards to modified risk/exposure from using their products. XXII is seeking a MODIFIED EXPOSURE claim to put on the packaging. They want to label the packaging to say that VLN has 95% less nicotine than leading brands and helps reduce nicotine consumption.

https://preview.redd.it/e8nfcri91bh61.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=96ccf5edb33ee4bd952f9c87364aeaaf34d2e95d
In the TPSAC meeting on Feb 14th 2020, the FDA preliminarily substantiated these statements. -
https://preview.redd.it/clfu44qg1bh61.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=f70bcb6d3841bda2d7a9f40b35d4735ecc5b929a

Mish, the CEO of XXII, has been saying since about September that they have been in close contact with the FDA and feel that it is a matter of WHEN, not if, MRTP approval happens. They were expecting it in Q4-2020, but that did not happen. No new timelines have been announced.
Soon after saying this, Mish proceeded to purchase 100,000 shares of XXII.
Mish continues to say that even a small percent of the market (.25%) would be enough to drive stock price up to $10. According to CDC and the WHO, there are over 1 billion smokers in the world. Over 34 million in the US. 2/3 of Adult smokers want to quit, and 1/2 of adult smokers made an attempt to quit in the past year. Less than 10% of smokers successfully quit.
Not only this, but according to a perception study done by XXII, 9% of participants DEFINITELY would use VLN. 16% are very likely to use. 34% are somewhat likely to use.
https://preview.redd.it/qbbw409y5qb61.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=29149dc518a92a7b2d75b095511711c266815c5b
XXII has said previously that they currently have the ability to supply 1% of the smoker population, increased to 2-3% with minimal investments. Last week, XXII put out an update that they are SIGNIFICANTLY increasing their VLN crop growing program in support of anticipated demand.
"This new planting for VLN® tobacco is in addition to the Company’s sizeable inventory of VLN® tobacco, which is earmarked for the launch and initial sales of 22nd Century’s VLN® reduced nicotine content cigarettes. 22nd Century’s Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) application for VLN® cigarettes is currently in the final stage of review with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once authorization is granted, 22nd Century will begin marketing its VLN® cigarettes, which contain 95% less nicotine than conventional cigarette brands. Having the only combustible cigarette with a modified exposure claim authorized by the FDA could serve as a catalyst for 22nd Century’s commercial sales as capturing even a small fraction of U.S. tobacco sales could result in exponential growth in the Company’s revenues and market capitalization."
“There are more than 34 million smokers in the United States and research shows that a majority of these smokers are looking for alternatives. When shown samples of VLN®, 60 percent of adult smokers in our studies indicated an interest in using VLN® cigarettes. Additionally, in a 2019 U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) survey, 80 percent of U.S. smokers favored reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes. We believe adult smokers will be very interested in VLN®, and this new crop of VLN® tobacco will help us to fulfill the expected demand based on our latest sales projections.”

They've also said they have been in talks with companies who are very excited to feature the first and only MRTP approved combustible product, and that they will have a rollout and be on shelves within 90 days of MRTP approval. And they said they are not giving out raises or promotions until MRTP approval is received. This was 5-6 months ago, too.
Mish described this MRTP approval as a home run scenario which I think we can all agree he is right. However there is also a GRAND SLAM scenario.
The FDA and various other groups have been working for years to limit the nicotine content in tobacco. In 2017 the FDA created a comprehensive plan for tobacco which included limiting nicotine content in cigarettes to non-addictive levels. Then in 2018 they released an article titled "How Could Lowering Nicotine Levels in Cigarettes Change the Future of Public Health? ".
The same year, the NEJM published this report titled "Potential Public Health Effects of Reducing Nicotine Levels in Cigarettes in the United States" indicating that such a standard could save millions of lives in the US alone. Considering there are only 34 million current smokers in the US, that seems HUGE. Imagine for the rest of the 966 million+ smokers in the world.
Trump's administration took the nicotine standard off the board close to the end of 2019 (oddly, right before the FDA under him approved the PMTA for XXIIs cigarettes).
Soon after, elected officials, attorney generals all were contacting the FDA requesting they reconsider implementing this nicotine policy. -
Kamala Harris & 22 other democrat senators -
https://preview.redd.it/c2it63fz5qb61.png?width=874&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa502bd2c430a297fb24626ece2c570d2cdad680
Xavier Becerra (California AG) and 5 other AGs - stating they support the nicotine standard and want it to apply to all tobacco products.
https://preview.redd.it/a9e0t4816qb61.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7fa2206c8958e6d6e746cec3b02c7be695cf4f1
Representative Pallone

https://preview.redd.it/k2glwd546qb61.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb2fca66dea03eb1d1a0b92424b087d6f19da397
Two days after Pallone's tweet, this article came out about nicotine mandate talks being resumed.
Xavier becerra and Kamala Harris are obviously close to Biden, but so is David Kessler who has vocally supported a nicotine mandate since 2010.
On December 8th, XXII announced the the FDA/NIDA and others have submitted an order for 3.6 million of XXII's variable nicotine cigarettes for study purposes. This provides continued optimism in the FDA's goal to limit nicotine content in cigarettes. There is already mountains of evidence supporting a nicotine mandate.
This mandate would heavily benefit XXII. They are the only company in the world that can produce tobacco with virtually no nicotine. Other companies have attempted to create low nicotine cigarettes by extracting the nicotine from regular tobacco in a variety of methods, but all of these methods influence the feel, flavor, and smell of the tobacco going into the cigarette, and it shows. See Philip Morris's 'Next' cigarette.)
Given this, if a mandate goes into effect, big tobacco has a couple choices. Find some alternative method of extracting nicotine that somehow doesn't fuck up the plant (yet to be found and proven), They could spend decades working on science that xxii has already figured out and patented (obviously the worst choice), or they can work with xxii to produce their tobacco. XXII has already said that they are open to licensing with all tobacco companies.

Biden has announced that his administration will lead with a CDC, NIH, and FDA free from political influence. They will lead based on science.
https://preview.redd.it/j7apzkqoced61.png?width=1449&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ab5b6b83ab21b7bd39f276e5b1de15ae5750fc
And although no permanent FDA commissioner has been named, Janet Woodcock has been named acting head while they vet other candidates for the permanent position. Woodcock, along with ex-FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb and Mitch Zeller, wrote a letter outlining the FDAs comprehensive approach to tobacco.

https://preview.redd.it/0nz1qk5ceed61.png?width=914&format=png&auto=webp&s=d00840ca6dae8d1987443335ec626aafe282c587

Most prominent on the list of candidates for the permanent role is Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, who seems to be a large proponent for the nicotine mandate.

https://preview.redd.it/rvtekc91ded61.png?width=634&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6faa84f3e6f59b74feb72c6ec52457dec5d86c1
To top all of this off, a report came out recently stating that cigarette sales in 2020 did not decline. Compared to 2018-2019 year over year sales, which shows a 5.5% reduction in sales, 2019-2020 year over year sales were flat.

Another report came out showing nicotine promotes breast cancer metastasis (Cancer's ability to move around the body).
"Smoking has a profound impact on tumor immunity, and nicotine, which is the major addictive component of smoke, is known to promote tumor progression despite being a non-carcinogen. In this study, we demonstrate that chronic exposure of nicotine plays a critical role in the formation of pre-metastatic niche within the lungs by recruiting pro-tumor N2-neutrophils. This pre-metastatic niche promotes the release of STAT3-activated lipocalin 2 (LCN2), a secretory glycoprotein from the N2-neutrophils, and induces mesenchymal-epithelial transition of tumor cells thereby facilitating colonization and metastatic outgrowth."

As the vaping epidemic continues, we are discovering possible health issues related to vape use. In addition studies are showing students who had previously tried an e-cigarette are 3x more likely to try a regular cigarette.
"Scientists at the University of Hawaii found e-cigarettes promoted cigarette smoking among young people. The researchers interviewed more than 2,000 high school students in 2013 and again a year later. About a third of those students said they had tried an e-cigarette by the time they were first interviewed. A year later, students who had previously smoked e-cigarettes were about three times more likely to have tried a regular cigarette, compared with those who had not used e-cigarettes."



Recently, James Mish, the CEO of XXII, wrote an opinion article on the nicotine mandate that was, in my opinion, very well written and not at all pumping his company.

You may be thinking 'Oh, but I bet Big tobacco has been working on this behind closed doors...' But in 2018 Big tobacco stated they would not be able to produce this kind of tobacco for 12-20+ years. XXII has it now, and is willing to work with these companies on licensing.
https://preview.redd.it/0u21qk5u9ye61.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=172a565df4695d7449c495500102a70c026226a2

https://preview.redd.it/y3zzw5xz9ye61.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a71569e697be7e322684a54ea359dd727c3ff01
The public health and economic impacts of tobacco use are immense and seemingly ignored. The WHO says tobacco use alone accounts for a quarter of all cancer deaths globally.
According to the CDC - More than 16 million Americans are living with a disease caused by smoking. Worldwide, tobacco use causes more than 7 million deaths per year. Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the USA, including 41,000 from secondhand smoke. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1300 deaths every day.
Not only is it a major public health issues (killing more people than covid), but it ends up also being a major drain financially. Smoking costs the US more than $300 billion each year. 170 billion in medical care and 156 billion in lost productivity and premature death.


Aside from the mandate and VLN cigarettes, there is also substantial room for growth into different industries for tobacco -
https://preview.redd.it/szmj7kp27qb61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3bf9e757e38eabe752944de6e4f8184dd33ef82
For example, XXII was just recently granted another patent for "Increasing the levels of nicotinic alkaloids in plants".
"Due to the paucity of research, there is a need for identifying genes that increase nicotine biosynthesis and accumulation. For example, because nicotinic alkaloids play an important role in protecting plants against insects and herbivores, it is likely to be advantageous to increase nicotinic alkaloid synthesis in a host plant. From an herbivory perspective, increased nicotine synthesis and accumulation would provide an environmentally acceptable means for mediating plant-pest interactions. "
Possibly getting into natural pesticides? Nicotine/tobacco has been used this way for some time (not in a large scale), but they could possibly optimize this.
"Cedric Briens and colleagues note that concerns about the health risks of tobacco have reduced demand and hurt tobacco farmers in some parts of the world. Scientists are looking for new uses for tobacco. One potential use is as a natural pesticide, due to tobacco’s content of toxic nicotine. For centuries, gardeners have used home-made mixtures of tobacco and water as a natural pesticide to kill insect pests. A “green” pesticide industry based on tobacco could provide additional income for farmers, and as well as a new eco-friendly pest-control agent, the scientists say." Link

"In addition to the more traditional applications for increased nicotine products, such as cigarettes and other tobacco products, recent pharmacological studies suggest a therapeutic role for nicotine and related compounds. For example, several research groups are presently studying drugs that target nicotine receptors as a means for treating cognitive impairments, such as Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, and age-related memory loss. Singer, “The Upside to Nicotine,” Technology Review (Jul. 28, 2006). Acetylcholine receptor ligands, such as nicotine, have been demonstrated to have effects on attention, cognition, appetite, substance abuse, memory, extra pyramidal function, cardiovascular function, pain, and gastrointestinal motility and function. U.S. Pat. No. 5,852,041. Thus, there are therapeutic benefits of nicotine and related compounds, and thus there is a need for improved methods for producing them."
Pharmaceuticals?

Another notable area here is the vaccine industry. Who knew Tobacco plants were involved in about 1/3 of all plant-based vaccines?

https://preview.redd.it/qmics1dw2if61.png?width=506&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7e8ab02485bf24cd77bef720f507407e56362d4
"Plant-based vaccine production offers better alternative over egg-based and cell-based vaccine production systems, by reducing lead time and increasing reliability and versatility. Furthermore, plant-based vaccine offers greater antigen specificity in disease treatment. Plant-based vaccine production enables manufacturers to create vaccine, which precisely matches the specific strain of influenza virus in patient’s circulation, as in case of flu infection, influenza virus mutates is constantly. For instance, according to Phase III clinical data study published by Medicago, in September 2017, Medicago's VLP vaccine during the phase II clinical trial stage showed higher antibody and cell-mediated immunity (CMI) responses over comparator conventional vaccine.
However, several challenges in manufacturing of plant-based vaccines is expected to restrain growth of the market. Plant-based vaccine production is a new technology and involves complex manufacturing and regulatory process.
In plant-based vaccine production method, manufacturers use only specific gene, which codes for protein called hemagglutinin, which is responsible for triggering immune system and encodes it into the tobacco plant leaves. In this context, companies need to pursue the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval to state that not only plant-based vaccine is safe and effective, but also the hemagglutinin or other proteins, which can be extracted from the plant leaves are according to the mentioned standard and that the manufacturing process yields a uniform and reliable product."
It's possible XXII could become a tobacco provider for this as the science is further developed. This is major speculation though as it looks like Medicago has a good foothold in this market.


On the cannabis side, xxii is creating proprietary plant lines with essentially customizable amounts of specific cannabinoids and terpenes. With Democratic control, we are expecting to see decriminalization for sure. But now that Dems also have the senate we can expect to see cannabis removed as a schedule 1 drug, opening it up to funding for research purposes. Any of this research is poised to benefit XXII heavily as they have control to customize plant lines for various purposes.
Recently, legislation has been proposed to "ensure that research on CBD and other potentially beneficial marijuana-derived substances is based on sound science while simultaneously reducing the regulatory barriers associated with conducting research on marijuana. "

XXII also is waiting to announce a third plant franchise until they have established the IP, but it should be soon. CEO has announced that the plant is similar in genome to the cannabis plant, and that the plant will make their franchises into a 'trifecta'. Because of this I think the third plant franchise is going to be hops. It's similar in genome... Tobacco...Cannabis...Beer... What a trifecta. I believe they could control terpene levels in hops which could be very influential in the craft beer industry.
Update - 1/28/2021 -XXII just announced that they are moving offices! This is a huge upgrade for them from their previous office. It's in an up and coming area, and it provides them opportunity to further grow their business. They wouldn't be doing this if they weren't preparing for the launch of VLN.
Here is an image of the building they are moving to. Pretty large upgrade for them. -
https://preview.redd.it/npjsw96hfye61.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2f932d7d1e612beb06c3c04f9928292482fd98b
"We have experienced tremendous positive change in our organization over the past year and this relocation will help us improve on efficiency, collaboration, and our ability to attract and retain top talent," said James A. Mish, chief executive officer of 22nd Century Group. "We have deep roots in Buffalo, and we are very excited to be moving to the up-and-coming Larkinville District, Buffalo's oldest manufacturing district, to join other organizations that are revitalizing the city's tech and business community."


To sum up the expected catalysts -
  1. MRTP approval - "WHEN NOT IF"..."MATTER OF MONTHS" from CEO back in Sep-Nov 2020
  2. Subsequent launch of product on shelves within 90 days.
  3. FDA announcement on nicotine mandate.
  4. Cannabis/hemp monetization announcements
  5. 3rd Plant Franchise.
I think the writing is on the wall here. I'm not going to go into any more details here, but if you have any questions feel free to throw them out.

For shits and giggles - I did post about this company 4 months ago on 10/11/2020 when the share price was ~.80.
https://www.reddit.com/pennystocks/comments/j970vxxii_plant_biotech_company_working_with/
Thanks!
submitted by Sniper-J to pennystocks [link] [comments]

$FUBO DD - This stock could moon

Please Note: This is for those of you who are not all-in on GME and like to look at alternatives. Not saying sell GME to buy FUBO, just saying there are other interesting alternatives out there, and FUBO is one of them. Also, it's heavily shorted.

- Share Facts -
My position

- The DD -
What is FuboTV?
Mama Wood said it herself (paraphrasing here): Cable is dying, to hell with cable, we want MOAR STREAMING!!!!!!!!!
Seriously, cable and television plans are dying. Nowadays you have a ton of flexible solutions, from the obvious Netflix and YouTube, to Amazon Prime, Sling TV, Hulu, etc. FUBO is capitalizing on this trend for sports fans. It is the country's first sports-first service. While the price might seem steep, it gives you access to dozens of regional, national and international sports channels, including live events in 4K HDR.
Beyond sports, it offers much more; 112 channels in total, including 43 of the top 50 Nielson-rated networks (for you autists and retards out there, Nielson is an American information, data and market measurement firm operating in over 100 countries and employing 44,000 people (says Wikipedia, I’m too retarded to do more research on them). Sample non-sports related channels on FUBO include: A&E, Adult Swim, AMC, BBC America, Bravo, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, etc. Yes, they even have the Weather Network.
Recent acquisitions:
No DD of a hyper fast growing company would be complete without discussing acquisitions.
Some numbers (yes, the quant stuff):
Average revenue per user (ARPU) has gone from $37.93 per month in 2019, to $53.73 in 2019, and to $67.70 in the latest quarter. In contrast, it’s average monthly cost per user has risen from $40.59 in 2018 to $56.78 in the last quarter. Yes, they were obviously operating at a loss, and yes they are now operating at a positive contribution profit. As of the latest quarter, they had 455,000 paid subcribers. Grand news, yes?
Q3 results, and guidance for Q4:
Spoiler alert: The numbers are fantastic.
What now?
Sure, they are not profitable yet. Big whoop, they are still young, FuboTV was founded in 2015. But you know what? It took ages for Netflix to become profitable (about 7 or 8 years, I believe). The way FUBO is growing their paid subscribers base, and the way the hours are increasing YoY, we can expect them to reach profitability sooner rather than later. When? I don’t have a crystal ball, if I do I’d be a billionaire. We can expect that as they continue to scale up and add more users, they will continue to increase their advertisement revenues (duh), and also that their cost of new client acquisition will become lower (also duh)
What are the risks?
TLDR: Awesome growth potential, heavily shorted (not at the GME scale, but still heavily shorted so you need to be mindful of that and potential WSB attention to the stock, or potential shady business from shorters).
Edit: 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
submitted by MrMooMoo- to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

FuboTV Due Diligence (FUBO) - Position included

- Share Facts -

My position

- The DD -
What is FuboTV?
Mama Wood said it herself (paraphrasing here): Cable is dying, to hell with cable, we want MOAR STREAMING!!!!!!!!!
Seriously, cable and television plans are dying. Nowadays you have a ton of flexible solutions, from the obvious Netflix and YouTube, to Amazon Prime, Sling TV, Hulu, etc. FUBO is capitalizing on this trend for sports fans. It is the country's first sports-first service. While the price might seem steep, it gives you access to dozens of regional, national and international sports channels, including live events in 4K HDR.
Beyond sports, it offers much more; 112 channels in total, including 43 of the top 50 Nielson-rated networks (Nielson is an American information, data and market measurement firm operating in over 100 countries and employing 44,000 people (says Wikipedia, I’m too retarded to do more research on them). Sample non-sports related channels on FUBO include: A&E, Adult Swim, AMC, BBC America, Bravo, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, etc. Yes, they even have the Weather Network.

Recent acquisitions:
No DD of a hyper fast growing company would be complete without discussing acquisitions.

Management: See here for bio of management. Cliff notes are

Some numbers (yes, the quant stuff):
Average revenue per user (ARPU) has gone from $37.93 per month in 2019, to $53.73 in 2019, and to $67.70 in the latest quarter. In contrast, it’s average monthly cost per user has risen from $40.59 in 2018 to $56.78 in the last quarter. Yes, they were obviously operating at a loss, and yes they are now operating at a positive contribution profit. As of the latest quarter, they had 455,000 paid subcribers. Grand news, yes?
Q3 results, and guidance for Q4:
Spoiler alert: The numbers are fantastic.

What now?
Sure, they are not profitable yet. Big whoop, they are still young, FuboTV was founded in 2015. But you know what? It took ages for Netflix to become profitable (about 7 or 8 years, I believe). The way FUBO is growing their paid subscribers base, and the way the hours are increasing YoY, we can expect them to reach profitability sooner rather than later. When? I don’t have a crystal ball, if I do I’d be a billionaire. We can expect that as they continue to scale up and add more users, they will continue to increase their advertisement revenues (duh), and also that their cost of new client acquisition will become lower (also duh)

What are the risks?
TLDR: Awesome growth potential, heavily shorted (not at the GME scale, but still heavily shorted so you need to be mindful of that and potential WSB attention to the stock, or potential shady business from shorters).
submitted by MrMooMoo- to thetagang [link] [comments]

FuboTV (FUBO) Due Diligence

No rockets, no GME, no AMC.
- Share Facts -

My position
- The DD -
What is FuboTV?
Mama Wood said it herself (paraphrasing here): Cable is dying, to hell with cable, we want MOAR STREAMING!!!!!!!!!
Seriously, cable and television plans are dying. Nowadays you have a ton of flexible solutions, from the obvious Netflix and YouTube, to Amazon Prime, Sling TV, Hulu, etc. FUBO is capitalizing on this trend for sports fans. It is the country's first sports-first service. While the price might seem steep, it gives you access to dozens of regional, national and international sports channels, including live events in 4K HDR.
Beyond sports, it offers much more; 112 channels in total, including 43 of the top 50 Nielson-rated networks (Nielson is an American information, data and market measurement firm operating in over 100 countries and employing 44,000 people (says Wikipedia, I’m too retarded to do more research on them). Sample non-sports related channels on FUBO include: A&E, Adult Swim, AMC, BBC America, Bravo, Comedy Central, Nickelodeon, etc. Yes, they even have the Weather Network.
Recent acquisitions:
No DD of a hyper fast growing company would be complete without discussing acquisitions.
Some numbers (yes, the quant stuff):
Average revenue per user (ARPU) has gone from $37.93 per month in 2019, to $53.73 in 2019, and to $67.70 in the latest quarter. In contrast, it’s average monthly cost per user has risen from $40.59 in 2018 to $56.78 in the last quarter. Yes, they were obviously operating at a loss, and yes they are now operating at a positive contribution profit. As of the latest quarter, they had 455,000 paid subcribers. Grand news, yes?
Q3 results, and guidance for Q4:
Spoiler alert: The numbers are fantastic.
What now?
Sure, they are not profitable yet. Big whoop, they are still young, FuboTV was founded in 2015. But you know what? It took ages for Netflix to become profitable (about 7 or 8 years, I believe). The way FUBO is growing their paid subscribers base, and the way the hours are increasing YoY, we can expect them to reach profitability sooner rather than later. When? I don’t have a crystal ball, if I do I’d be a billionaire. We can expect that as they continue to scale up and add more users, they will continue to increase their advertisement revenues (duh), and also that their cost of new client acquisition will become lower (also duh)
What are the risks?
TLDR: Awesome growth potential, heavily shorted (not at the GME scale, but still heavily shorted so you need to be mindful of that and potential WSB attention to the stock, or potential shady business from shorters).
submitted by MrMooMoo- to stocks [link] [comments]

Looking Back at the Last Decade of Baseball: The 2020s in Review (part 1 of 2)

The last decade of baseball sure has been fun, hasn’t it? We’ve had thrills, we’ve had chills, we’ve had spills, . But a decade is a long time, and much has been forgotten: So let’s look back on the 2020s, and all the things that happened in it! We begin in...

2021

January: Hype builds around the top free agent of the season, Trevor Bauer. After announcing that he will not accept any deals that do not have leading numbers of either 69 or 420, front offices scramble to free up the necessary budget space.
February: As players arrive at spring training, there is an astounding amount of hype surrounding the young superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is reported by multiple news outlets as being in, ‘the worst shape of his life’.
March: After four intense months of free agent negotiations, Trevor Bauer announces he plans to take a gap year to explore his possible options in life.
On Opening Day, Byron Buxton runs full-tilt into the outfield wall while trying to track down a Jorge Soler home run. He breaks three wrists and is out for the remainder of the season, sparing Twins fans the disappointment of seeing him waste his batting potential.
April: Mike Fiers, sick of being snubbed by front offices due to his role in blowing the whistle on the Astros sign stealing scandal, writes a tell-all where he claims he was the brains behind the whole operation. Eight different MLB clubs and Bill Belicheck immediately send him a contract offer.
May: Mark Reynolds announces his retirement on the grounds of being completely blind. He is promptly offered a lucrative contract by the umpire’s union.
June: On June 12, highly touted prospect Seth Beer makes his major league debut with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He uses ‘Beer’ by Reel Big Fish as his walkup song, and is immediately banned from baseball for life for reminding people that ska existed.
July: Fernando Tatis Jr. again ignites controversy from the media and from former players after being intentionally walked when his team is up by ten. “That is a disgusting act by Fernando Tatis Jr. and it's unfortunate that we had that on our air live”, says Joe Buck, calling the game for FOX, “That is disgusting by Tatis”.
Toronto continues their long-standing tradition of signing prospects who were born of somebody who screwed someone who used to be a good major league player by bringing A.J. Burnett Jr. into their minor league system.
August: Hawk Harrelson returns to broadcast a single game for the White Sox. Chicago gives up ten runs in the first, and Hawk remains completely silent for the last eight innings.
After years of controversy, the Cleveland Indians finally announce their rebrand. Their announcement states, “We waited far too long to get rid of Chief Wahoo. We’re not going to be late to the party for the next step. With Washington rebranding, it’s time to strike while the iron is hot. We recognize that there will likely be uproar, but history will vindicate us. From now on, the team will be known as the Ohio Indians”.
September: The MLB marketing team goes into overdrive and announces the creation of MLBFilms, a movie company developing films starring MLB players to try to increase their public image.
October: The Mariners put the final touches on a blessed season by mounting a five-run comeback against the Angels in the bottom of the ninth inning of game 162. Kyle Seager hits a walk-off grand slam to cap it off. They finish 73-89.
November: With the close of the 2021 season, the collective bargaining agreement between the MLB and the Player’s Union ends. For the sake of everyone’s sanity, both sides agree to ignore this.
After further investigation into the Astros sign stealing scandal, the Comissioners’s Office announces new sanctions: Cleveland State will receive the ‘death penalty’.
December: The Rockies broadcast team welcomes Matt Holliday as their new color commentator. The longtime Colorado player joins Drew Goodman, Ryan Spilbroughs, and Jeff Huson in the booth.
A.J Pierzynski receives two votes for the Hall of Fame and immediately demands a recount.

2022

January: Tim Lincecum, long time Giants fan favorite, announces his intent to come back to baseball. ‘I’ve been out of this game too long. I wasn’t sure if the fans and the team would accept me after all this time, but the support I’ve received has been incredible. When this position as a bat boy opened up, I knew it was made for me”. He will face stiff competition from a number of eight year olds to fill the position
MLBFilms announces their first movie: a four hour long, Scorsese-directed gender swapped version of A League of Their Own. It stars Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Mo’ne Davis. It will be cinema.
February: The Blue Jays show some concern as Vladimir Guerrero Jr seems to have gained more weight during the offseason, ballooning up to 300 pounds, and requesting a position change to designated hitter.
March: Tragedy strikes Tampa Bay as Tropicana Field is mistaken for an abandoned shopping mall and torn down by a demolitions company. The goof isn’t noticed for almost a week until a group of Yankees fans arrives to buy tickets.
April: Trevor Bauer finally decides to sign with someone, and signs a $69 million, 4.20 year deal with the White Sox for the express purpose of trying to get suspended by Tony La Russa.
May: The Rays announce they are rebuilding Tropicana Field exactly as it was, brick-for-brick. They put out a call for any Yankees fans who might have attended the stadium in the last few years to send pictures to work off of, as the original plans for the Trop were traded to the Mariners for cash considerations years ago.
Nelson Cruz invites controversy after choosing the 17 minute version of ‘In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida’ as his walkup song, and not stepping into the box until the entire song is finished. He manages to avoid getting plunked by pitchers until he starts doing air-guitars with the bat and drumming the solo on home plate.
June: The MLB marketing team jumps back into action by putting pictures of Spiderman on the bases, presumably on direct order from J. Jonah Jameson. This is immediately met with massive backlash from every human being on earth, including Spiderman himself. Bud Selig counters, “Suck it up, buttercup.” This is a real thing that happened.
The Braves pay Bruce Sutter ten million dollars and thank their lucky stars that Bobby Bonilla gets all the press.
July: The umpire’s union receives serious backlash after Ron Kulpa blows a ball-strike ball on a David Price perfect game in progress, causing him to walk Nick Castellanos with two outs in the first inning.
Joe Buck broadcasts the entire Home Run Derby solo, saying, ‘And we will see you tomorrow night’ in a straight, monotone voice for every single home run; gradually increasing in volume until he yells at the top of his lungs continually during the final round. It receives the highest ever ratings for any television event ever. Jo Adell wins with three total home runs.
On July 21st, in a game against the Diamondbacks, Kenley Jansen intentionally balks to move a runner from second to third. Sensing unwritten rules being broken, Brian McCann punches his way out of his grave beneath the mound and hits Jansen with a DDT, killing him instantly.
August: Tony La Russa publicly announces he is moving on to a more sabermetric way of managing, and moves his center fielder out of the first spot in the batting order. “Perhaps, depending on how this goes, I may even move the catcher out of the ninth spot in the order.”
September: As their season ends, the Ohio Indians announce another name change, citing how large the backlash was and how offensive they learned their name was to the millions of people who were not acclimatized to it. They are now known as the Lake Erie Indians.
October: The Marlins, after years of careful management by Derek Jeter, sweep the National League playoffs on their way to a World Series victory over the Athletics in six games. Immediately after hoisting the trophy, the entire front office is sold off to other franchises to save salary room.
After the World Series, Bud Selig officially announces his retirement as MLB commissioner. “After thirty years in this position, it’s time for me to move on. I am grateful to the owners throughout Major League Baseball for their unwavering support and for allowing me to lead this great institution. I thank our players, who give me unlimited enthusiasm about the future of our game. Together we have taken this sport to new heights and have positioned our national pastime to thrive for generations to come. Most of all, I would like to thank our fans, who are the heart and soul of our game.” Tony Clark is thought to be next in line for the position.
November: Bill James publishes his new book, The Measure of a Man, where he has an exact formula worked out for the value of individual human lives. Mike Trout is worth exactly $290,322,784.32. You are worth twelve cents.
December: The Winter Meetings begin with a bang as the Mariners announce they are trading Kyle Lewis for ten of the Yankees’ wins next year. DiPoto says, “They probably won’t need them, and although we aren’t going to get enough to win the whole shebang, we might be able to get the 15 percent share to get an invite to the debates. With that kind of media coverage, who knows where we can go?”

2023

January: The Nationals announce that Mike Rizzo is stepping down as President of Baseball Operations, but not before giving himself ‘a full and legal pardon for all crimes he may or may not have committed while in his position, and for all the crimes he may or may not commit in the future.’
The Athletic releases a shocking exposé showing that Tim Wakefield’s ‘rolling contract’ on the Red Sox will actually never expire due to a legal technicality. The Red Sox owe him $4 million, every year, until the heat death of the universe.
February: The MLB marketing team puts pictures of Mike Trout on milk cartons, with the caption, ‘Have You Seen This Kiiiiiiiid?’. The only result is the occasional call to the missing persons hotline whenever somebody accidentally tunes into an Angels game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arrives at spring training announcing that he feels lighter and faster than ever, due to his fat folds being held up by repulsorlifts like Baron Vladimir Harkonnen in Dune.
March: Disaster strikes the Oakland Coliseum as the Wave takes hold of the stadium on opening day. Thousands of people die either of exhaustion or starvation. The governor attempts to declare a disaster zone, but finds out that legally, the entirety of Oakland has been a disaster for the last thirty years.
April: Nothing happened this month.
May: The Boston Red Sox are caught up in yet another cheating scandal, where the Blue Jays allege that Tom Brady, somehow, managed to deflate their baseballs before a key playoff game in 2022.
Byron Buxton runs headfirst into a Mack truck that was accidentally left parked in Target Field’s outfield by the ground crew. He loses eight ribs from the resulting surgery and is out for 6-8 weeks.
Robbie Cano is banned from the MLB for life after testing positive for shooting up black tar heroin into his eyeball.
June: Matt Holliday is suspended from his broadcast job after claims that, in the past, he had ‘inappropriately touched’ home plate during his Rockies career.
Tom Brady is ambushed at his house by Brian McCann and tombstoned directly into the driveway, killing him instantly. There are no witnesses.
July: Fernando Tatis Jr. is suspended by the Padres without pay for a week after being hit by a pitch with the bases loaded while up by twelve over the Dodgers. John Smoltz condemns his repulsive behavior by running up the score. Lynch mobs assemble outside Petco Park.
Billy Hamilton wins the Home Run Derby after discovering that inside the park home runs are not technically banned. He racks up 783 home runs in the first round alone before the kids playing the outfield figure out what’s going on.
August: Matt Holliday is cleared and reinstated to his job after no evidence was found of him actually touching home plate. In a public statement, he thanks the Padres for their longtime support and their hard work to clear his name in this matter.
During a Braves-Marlins game, the disembodied head of Joe Buck appears on the Fox Sports South broadcast on all cameras and stares wistfully into the camera for twenty-two seconds before bleeding from the eyes and fading away. Buck declines to comment on the matter.
September: Jose Canseco announces in a tweet that, if he is not elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran’s Committee immediately, he will not intervene to save us all from the upcoming singularity robot apocalypse.
October: In the Wild Card game against the Blue Jays, the Astros again invite controversy by calling the other team’s bullpen phone constantly and telling Ken Giles to stop warming up; twenty-seven times in the eighth inning alone. With Toronto unable to use their bullpen, Russell Martin comes in for the save situation and gives up seventeen runs. Charlie Montoyo attempts to protest the game, but the Astros yell so loud at the umpires that they can’t hear what he’s saying.
Pete Rose reveals that he was behind the 1978 Boston College point shaving scandal, and boy, did he make a ton of money from that. He is immediately banned for life from the Basketball Hall of Fame.
November: Both the American and National leagues award their MVP award to Albert Belle despite him being out of the league for twenty years, as he certainly did not deserve to lose to Mo Vaughn in 1995. Pedro Martinez finishes a close second.
Albert Pujols’ home run against Brad Lidge finally lands, killing millions on impact.
December: At the Winter Meetings, Brett Favre formally announces his retirement from the NFL.
The Yankees flex their checks and sign one of the best pitchers ever to have played the game for 15yrs/450million: Christopher Robin from Winnie The Pooh Home Run Derby.

2024

January: In an explosive piece of investigative journalism, The Athletic discovers that Joe Buck has ties to Russia. Buck categorically denied the allegations in a press statement, adding, ‘And we will see you tomorrow night. In court.’
Jose Canseco is unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame.
February: Vladimir Guerrero Jr arrives at spring training by oozing through the windows of the practice facility and reforming himself into a man-like form in the hallways. He moves to the outfield, as he now covers enough ground that the ball will never hit the turf.
March: MLB The Show 2024 releases to rave reviews from critics, despite being the exact same game as MLB the Show 2023 and MLB the Show 2022. It is voted the best sports game of the year for the simple fact that they did not remove features from last year’s game.
On opening day, Dusty Baker announces to the umpires that he will be playing the entire season under protest. He gives no explanation.
April: Spencer Torkelson makes his MLB debut for the Tigers, lasting an entire at-bat before the umpires pull him from the game and send him back to the 1890s where his name belongs.
The Yankees announce that they are moving away from the pinstripe uniforms which have dominated their style since the early days of the club, and are switching to more iconic and beloved uniforms - the 1970s Houston Astros rainbow jerseys, effective immediately. Yankees fans strenuously object because it’s harder to look like assholes when wearing bright, happy colors.
May: Aroldis Chapman mirrors Randy Johnson when, during a save opportunity at Yankee Stadium, he brings down a low-flying single engine plane with a pitch, killing the pilot. This becomes the second-worst plane accident involving a Yankees pitcher in New York in the last twenty years.. [Editor’s note: This is not a 9/11 joke. That would be incredibly distasteful and disrespectful to the thousands of Americans that died on that day. This is a joke about Corey Lidle, whose death is slightly more socially acceptable to make light of.]
June: Scientists working with the New York Yankees announce new developments in doing The Wave, led by observations at Yankee Stadium. This new version of The Wave, endorsed by Yankees fans around the world, will be done only with the middle finger.
July: MLBFilms announce their next release - a collaboration with Warner Bros: Scooby-Doo! Batter Up!, where the Scooby gang meets Bryce Harper and the Phillies and have to defeat a ghost that possessed the Philly Phanatic and locked the team inside Citizens Bank Park. The city of Philadelphia defeats the ghost by throwing batteries at it, and it’s revealed to have been Gritty all along. This is not a joke.
For the fifteenth and final time, the Reds pay Ken Griffey Jr. 3.6 million dollars, ending his deferred contract. The Reds front office once again thanks the Mets for being such boneheads that nobody cares that other teams have far, far worse deferred contracts than they do. Although none of the other ones had to do with Bernie Madoff.
August: The Blue Jays announce that they are negotiating with LeBron James, Jr for a minor league deal.
Brett Gardner tests positive for having a giant fucking head and is suspended by the MLB for 80 games. He appeals on grounds of the test possibly being a false positive, and the possibility that vitamins he took were contaminated, and that, as a sovereign citizen, the MLB has no right to test him. He also tests positive for eleven different steroids, which he does not contest.
September: Tony La Russa announces his retirement at the end of the season, citing his early stages of dementia. This confirms the rumors that spread around the league after La Russa wandered off in the middle of a game to find the nearest Cracker Barrel.
October: Fernando Tatis Jr. disrespects the game of baseball by arriving at Petco for a game after the Padres have clinched the top seed in the playoffs. Brain McCann materializes out of the aether and hits Tatis with an elbow off the top ropes, killing him instantly.
The MLB announces a new broadcast format for the World Series, where Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy will sit silhouetted in front of a screen with the official Joe Buck/Tim McCarver broadcast and heckle them constantly, MST3k style. It is cancelled after one game after complaints from Joe Buck’s mother.
November: Radical sabermetricians make the news by making threats against the MLB, warning that unless announcers actually learn how WAR and FIP work, ‘there will be consequences’. Commissioner Tony Clark gives a strong speech, responding that the MLB ‘does not negotiate with terrorists. We don’t even negotiate with the MLBPA most of the time’’.
December: The Red Sox trade Tim Wakefield’s rolling contract to the Mariners in exchange for the Mariners’ franchise history and the cutout of a baseball player that sits outside a Lowe’s in Seattle.

2025

January: The St. Louis Cardinals accidentally delete their Excel 95 spreadsheet listing their minor league prospects. It’s estimated that up to 200 ballplayers were lost, and though scouts managed to retrieve some of them, a large number still cannot be accounted for.
February: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. announces his retirement from baseball to star in an MLBFilms remake of ‘The Blob’.
March: The MLB floats the idea of having a ‘three batter minimum’ for pitchers, so that teams won’t continually switch pitchers to gain a handedness advantage. This is laughed at by everyone, so they forget about it. The idea never comes up again.
April: In an otherwise routine game at Target Field, Byron Buxton is tracking down a routine pop fly when he suddenly runs headlong into the evidence that Pete Rose bet against the Reds, shattering every bone in his body and eight in Max Kepler’s.
May: The Mets broadcast leaves a live mic on Zach Greinke, which picks up what he’s constantly mumbling about while on the mound. A transcript: “Dog carcass in alley this morning. Tire tread on burst stomach. The city is afraid [strikes out Tim Anderson] of me. I have seen it's true face. The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over all the [induces a Chad Wallach pop-up] vermin will drown. The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout "save us!"... and I'll look down from the mound and [retires Derek Dietrich on three pitches] whisper "no"”
June: June 28, 2025. A date which will live in infamy. Everyone remembers where they were on that day. The pictures are burned into the brain of every man, woman, and child watching the All-Star game.
The black helicopter landing in center field.
The masked figures kicking a bound and gagged David Eckstein out of the door.
Their speech through the loudspeaker system, calling for the deaths of all those who stood in the way of progress. You all know what followed.
When that helicopter took off, leaving a four foot eight corpse on the field, the relationship between baseball and statistics was changed forever. SABR was declared a terrorist organization, and although Bill James denied any involvement and denounced the perpetrators, he would never be looked at the same. The FBI tracks him for the rest of his life.
July: C.C. Sabathia, Brian McCann, and the corpse of David Eckstein are inducted into the Hall of Fame. During his speech, Sabathia briefly mentions breaking the unwritten rules of baseball, and Brian McCann hits him with a steel chair, killing him instantly.
A huge remembrance of David Eckstein’s life takes place among the media.
“How can a man weighing 45 pounds and only two and a half feet tall make such an impression on the hearts of man? Not everyone has the grit, the determination, the grit, the dirtiness, the courage, the grit, or the grit to win in the MLB, but that’s only because Eckstein took the grit from all those people to use himself.”
“We all remember Eckstein single-handedly dragging the Cardinals to a World Series victory, but it’s easy to overlook his other work, and not just because he was so short. This was a man whose bodily fluids were filled with lunch pails.”
August: SABR’s hitlist is leaked by government agencies. It includes the two bozos who left Pedro Martinez off the MVP ballot, 90’s Joe Carter, John Smoltz, and everyone who ever wrote an article about David Eckstein, ‘to wipe clean the scum of the earth’. All of these people are immediately placed under police protection except John Smoltz, who refused it as he never believed in sabermetrics anyway.
September: A source inside the MLB suggests that they should have been more prepared for a terrorist attack, saying, “These guys are literally named SABR - could they have more of a Bond villain secret organization name? And look at their mission statement: ‘we seek the deaths of those who would desecrate our great national pastime, and those who refuse to understand it.’ - shouldn’t that have turned some heads? I believe that the MLB intentionally ignored this threat so they could go to war with SABR and then seize their oil”. Tony Clark refuses comment.
Tony La Russa announces his retirement from baseball at the end of the season.
October: After a long and storied career, Albert Pujols announces his retirement and immediately ages 150 years to return to his true age like Donovan at the end of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Both dugouts rush his desiccated body to claim the bones as good luck charms.
November: David Eckstein is posthumously inducted into the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame as an honorary member of the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band.
The NAACP makes headlines when they release their list of Greatest Baseball Players of All Time, due to Jose Bautista taking the #1 spot over from Jackie Robinson. They justify it by saying ‘Jose Bautista is the Harriet Tubman of his times”.
December: After missing the playoffs for the tenth straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies trade Bryce Harper to the New York Yankees for a sack of potatoes.
Part 2: 2026-2030
submitted by SirParsifal to baseball [link] [comments]

Some strong historical fantasy books (takes place in Earth's past)

All these books take place at a specific time and place in Earth’s past. Other than that one nod to reality, all bets are off.

27. The Once and Future Witches by Alix E. Harrow - 2020

In 1893, there’s no such thing as witches. There used to be, in the wild, dark days before the burnings began, but now witching is nothing but tidy charms and nursery rhymes. If the modern woman wants any measure of power, she must find it at the ballot box.
But when the Eastwood sisters—James Juniper, Agnes Amaranth, and Beatrice Belladonna—join the suffragists of New Salem, they begin to pursue the forgotten words and ways that might turn the women’s movement into the witch’s movement. Stalked by shadows and sickness, hunted by forces who will not suffer a witch to vote—and perhaps not even to live—the sisters will need to delve into the oldest magics, draw new alliances, and heal the bond between them if they want to survive.
There’s no such thing as witches. But there will be.
“A love letter to folklore and the rebellious women of history.” ―Publishers Weekly

26. The Terror by Dan Simmons - 2007

The men on board HMS Terror have every expectation of triumph. As part of the 1845 Franklin Expedition, the first steam-powered vessels ever to search for the legendary Northwest Passage, they are as scientifically supported an enterprise as has ever set forth.
As they enter a second summer in the Arctic Circle without a thaw, though, they are stranded in a nightmarish landscape of encroaching ice and darkness. Endlessly cold, with diminishing rations, 126 men fight to survive with poisonous food, a dwindling supply of coal, and ships buckling in the grip of crushing ice. But their real enemy is far more terrifying.
There is something out there in the frigid darkness: an unseen predator stalking their ship, a monstrous terror constantly clawing to get in. As yet another winter approaches, as scurvy and starvation grow more terrible, and as the terror gets closer, the captain and his men begin to fear that there is no escape.
“The best and most unusual historical novel I have read in years.” ―The Boston Globe

25. Servant of the Underworld by Aliette de Bodard - 2010

Book 1 of 3 in the Obsidian and Blood series
Year One-Knife, Tenochtitlan the capital of the Aztecs. Human sacrifice and the magic of the living blood are the only things keeping the sun in the sky and the earth fertile.
A Priestess disappears from an empty room drenched in blood. It should be a usual investigation for Acatl, High Priest of the Dead—except that his estranged brother is involved, and the the more he digs, the deeper he is drawn into the political and magical intrigues of noblemen, soldiers, and priests-and of the gods themselves…
“Part murder mystery, part well-researched historical novel and part fantasy.” —SFX Magazine

24. The Philosopher's Flight by Tom Miller - 2018

Book 1 of 2 in The Philosophers Series
Eighteen-year-old Robert Weekes is one of the few men who practice empirical philosophy—an arcane, female-dominated branch of science used to summon the wind, heal the injured, and even fly.
He’s always dreamed of being the first man to join the US Sigilry Corps’ Rescue and Evacuation Department, an elite team of flying medics, but everyone knows that’s impossible: men can barely get off the ground. When a shocking tragedy puts Robert’s philosophical abilities to the test, he rises to the occasion and wins a scholarship to study philosophy at Radcliffe College—an all-women’s school.
At Radcliffe, Robert hones his flying skills and strives to win the respect of his classmates, a host of formidable and unruly women. Robert falls hard for Danielle Hardin, a disillusioned young hero of the Great War turned political radical. But Danielle’s activism and Robert’s recklessness attract the attention of the same fanatical anti-philosophical group that Robert’s mother fought against decades before.
With their lives in mounting danger, Robert and Danielle band together with a team of unlikely heroes to fight for Robert’s place among the next generation of empirical philosophers—and for philosophy’s very survival against the men who would destroy it.
“[A] wealth of worldbuilding in this deft, nonconformist historical fantasy set during World War I…Miller offers a nuanced adventure story that mixes romance, gunplay, and social awareness into its steampunk-ish revelry. A fun, fast-paced coming-of-age story laced with magic.” —Kirkus Reviews

23. Fevre Dream by George R.R. Martin - 1982

That’s right. The Game of Thrones guy wrote a darn good vampire book, too.
Abner Marsh, a struggling riverboat captain, suspects that something’s amiss when a wealthy aristocrat with a lucrative offer approaches him. The hauntingly pale, steely-eyed Joshua York doesn’t care that the icy winter of 1857 has wiped out all but one of Marsh’s dilapidated fleet; nor does he care that he won’t earn back his investment any time soon. York’s reasons for traversing the powerful Mississippi are to be none of Marsh’s concern—no matter how bizarre, arbitrary, or capricious York’s actions may prove. Not until the maiden voyage of Fevre Dream does Marsh realize that he has joined a mission both more sinister, and perhaps more noble, than his most fantastic nightmare—and humankind’s most impossible dream.
“An adventure into the heart of darkness that transcends even the most inventive vampire novels . . . Fevre Dream runs red with original, high adventure.” —Los Angeles Herald Examiner

22. Dodger by Terry Pratchett - 2012

A storm. Rain-lashed city streets. A flash of lightning. A scruffy lad sees a girl leap desperately from a horse-drawn carriage in a vain attempt to escape her captors. Can the lad stand by and let her be caught again? Of course not, because he’s…Dodger.
Seventeen-year-old Dodger may be a street urchin, but he gleans a living from London’s sewers, and he knows a jewel when he sees one. He’s not about to let anything happen to the unknown girl—not even if her fate impacts some of the most powerful people in England.
From Dodger’s encounter with the mad barber Sweeney Todd to his meetings with the great writer Charles Dickens and the calculating politician Benjamin Disraeli, history and fantasy intertwine in a breathtaking account of adventure and mystery.
“Masterful. Unexpected, drily funny and full of the pathos and wonder of life: Don’t miss it.” —Kirkus Reviews

21. The Strange Case of the Alchemist's Daughter by Theodora Goss - 2017

Book 1 of 3 in The Extraordinary Adventures of the Athena Club series
Mary Jekyll, alone and penniless following her parents’ death, is curious about the secrets of her father’s mysterious past. One clue in particular hints that Edward Hyde, her father’s former friend and a murderer, may be nearby, and there is a reward for information leading to his capture…a reward that would solve all of her immediate financial woes.
But her hunt leads her to Hyde’s daughter, Diana, a feral child left to be raised by nuns. With the assistance of Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson, Mary continues her search for the elusive Hyde, and soon befriends more women, all of whom have been created through terrifying experimentation: Beatrice Rappaccini, Catherin Moreau, and Justine Frankenstein.
When their investigations lead them to the discovery of a secret society of immoral and power-crazed scientists, the horrors of their past return. Now it is up to the monsters to finally triumph over the monstrous.
“A tour de force of reclaiming the narrative, executed with impressive wit and insight.” —Publishers Weekly, starred review

20. Shades of Milk and Honey by Mary Robinette Kowal - 2010

Book 1 of 5 in the Glamourist Histories series
Shades of Milk and Honey is exactly what we could expect from Jane Austen if she had been a fantasy writer: Pride and Prejudice meets Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell. It is an intimate portrait of a woman, Jane, and her quest for love in a world where the manipulation of glamour is considered an essential skill for a lady of quality.
Jane and her sister Melody vie for the attentions of eligible men, and while Jane’s skill with glamour is remarkable, it is her sister who is fair of face. When Jane realizes that one of Melody’s suitors is set on taking advantage of her sister for the sake of her dowry, she pushes her skills to the limit of what her body can withstand in order to set things right—and, in the process, accidentally wanders into a love story of her own.
“With the grace of Sense and Sensibility, a touch of classic fairy tale magic, and an action-packed ending, this debut novel by an award-winning fantasy short story writer will appeal to fans of Jane Austen, Jane Yolen, Patricia Wrede, Susannah Clarke, and even Jasper Fforde.” —Library Journal

19. The Once and Future King by T. H. White - 1958

Once upon a time, a young boy called “Wart” was tutored by a magician named Merlyn in preparation for a future he couldn’t possibly imagine. A future in which he would ally himself with the greatest knights, love a legendary queen, and unite a country dedicated to chivalrous values. A future that would see him crowned and known for all time as Arthur, King of the Britons.
During Arthur’s reign, the kingdom of Camelot was founded to cast enlightenment on the Dark Ages, while the knights of the Round Table embarked on many a noble quest. But Merlyn foresaw the treachery that awaited his liege: the forbidden love between Queen Guenever and Lancelot, the wicked plots of Arthur’s half-sister Morgause, and the hatred she fostered in Mordred that would bring an end to the king’s dreams for Britain—and to the king himself.
“Touching, profound, funny and tragic.” —Los Angeles Times

18. The Master and Margarita by Mikhail Bulgakov - 1966

One spring afternoon, the Devil, trailing fire and chaos in his wake, weaves himself out of the shadows and into Moscow.
Written during the darkest period of Stalin’s repressive reign and a devastating satire of Soviet life, it combines two distinct yet interwoven parts, one set in contemporary Moscow, the other in ancient Jerusalem, each brimming with historical, imaginary, frightful and wonderful characters. Although completed in 1940, The Master & Margarita was not published until 1966 when the first section appeared in the monthly magazine Moskva. Russians everywhere responded enthusiastically to the novel’s artistic and spiritual freedom and it was an immediate and enduring success.
“By turns hilarious, mysterious, contemplative, and poignant . . . A great work.” —Chicago Tribune

17. Across the Nightingale Floor by Lian Hearn - 2002

Book 1 of 5 in the Tales of the Otori series
In his black-walled fortress at Inuyama, the warlord Iida Sadamu surveys his famous nightingale floor. Constructed with exquisite skill, it sings at the tread of each human foot. No assassin can cross it unheard.
The youth Takeo has been brought up in a remote mountain village among the Hidden, a reclusive and spiritual people who have taught him only the ways of peace. But unbeknownst to him, his father was a celebrated assassin and a member of the Tribe, an ancient network of families with extraordinary, preternatural skills.
When Takeo’s village is pillaged, he is rescued and adopted by the mysterious Lord Otori Shigeru. Under the tutelage of Shigeru, he learns that he too possesses the skills of the Tribe. And, with this knowledge, he embarks on a journey that will lead him across the famed nightingale floor—and to his own unimaginable destiny…
“Satisfyingly rich in incident yet admirably spare in the telling…Hearn has created a world I anticipate returning to with pleasure.” —The New York Times Book Review

16. Bridge of Birds by Barry Hughart - 1984

Book 1 of 3 in The Chronicles of Master Li and Number Ten Ox
When the children of his village were struck with a mysterious illness, Number Ten Ox sought a wiseman to save them. He found master Li Kao, a scholar with a slight flaw in his character. Together they set out to find the Great Root of Power, the only possible cure.
The quest led them to a host of truly memorable characters, multiple wonders, incredible adventures—and strange coincidences, which were really not coincidences at all. And it involved them in an ancient crime that still perturbed the serenity of Heaven. Simply and charmingly told, this is a wry tale, a sly tale, and a story of wisdom delightfully askew. Once read, its marvels and beauty will not easily fade from the mind.
“Li Kao may have a slight flaw in his character but the book has none. I recommend it unconditionally and I predict Barry Hughart has quite a future as a fantasy writer.” —Anne McCaffrey, author of the Dragonriders of Pern series

15. Lion of Macedon by David Gemmell - 1990

Book 1 of 2 in the Greek Series
Over and again, the aged seeress Tamis scried all the possible tomorrows. In every one, dark forces threatened Greece; terrible evil was poised to reenter the world. The future held only one hope: a half-caste Spartan boy, Parmenion. So Tamis made it her mission to see that Parmenion would become the deadliest warrior in the world—no matter what the cost.
Raised to manhood in Sparta, bullied and forced to fight for his life every day, Parmenion had no notion of the unseen dimensions of magic and mystery that shaped his fate. He grew in strength and cunning. His military genius earned him the title Strategos in Sparta. His triumphs for the city of Thebes made him a hero. And finally his fate led him to the service of Philip of Macedon.
As Tamis had foreseen, Parmenion’s destiny was tied to the Dark God, to Philip, and to the yet-unborn Alexander. All too soon the future was upon them. Parmenion stood poised to defeat evil—or to open the gate for the Dark God to reenter the world.

14. Daughter of the Forest by Juliet Marillier - 1999

Book 1 of 6 in The Sevenwaters Series
The Sevenwaters series takes place in Ireland and Britain in the ninth century.
Lovely Sorcha is the seventh child and only daughter of Lord Colum of Sevenwaters. Bereft of a mother, she is comforted by her six brothers who love and protect her. Sorcha is the light in their lives and they are determined that she know only contentment. But Sorcha’s joy is shattered when her father is bewitched by his new wife, an evil enchantress who binds her brothers with a terrible spell, a spell which only Sorcha can lift—by staying silent.
If she speaks before she completes the quest set to her by the Fair Folk and their queen, the Lady of the Forest, she will lose her brothers forever. When Sorcha is kidnapped by the enemies of Sevenwaters and taken to a foreign land, she is torn between the desire to save her beloved brothers, and a love that comes only once. Sorcha despairs that she will never able to complete her task, but the magic of the Fair Folk knows no boundaries, and love is the strongest magic of them all….

13. The Lions of Al-rassan by Guy Gavriel Kay - 1995

The ruling Asharites have come from the desert sands, worshipping the stars, their warrior blood fierce and pure. But over centuries, seduced by the sensuous pleasures of their new land, that stern piety has eroded. The Asharies empire has splintered into decadent city-states lead by warring petty kinds.
King Almalik of Cartada is on the ascendancy, adding city after city to his realm, even though Cartada is threatened by forces both within and without. Almalik is aided by his friend and advisor, the notorious Ammar ibn Khairan—poet, diplomat, soldier—until a summer afternoon of savage brutality changes their relationship forever.
Meanwhile, in the north, Rodrigo Belmonte, the Jaddite’s most celebrated and feared military leader, is driven into exile in the wake of events following the death of the king he loved. Rodrigo leads his mercenary company south, to the dangerous lands of Al-Rassan.
In the exquisite lakeside city of Ragosa, Rodrigo Belmonte and Ammar ibn Kharian meet and serve, for a time, the same master. Sharing the interwoven fate of these two men from different worlds—and increasingly torn in her feelings—is Jehane, the beautiful, accomplished court physician, whose own skills play an increasing role as Al-Rassan is swept to the brink of holy war, and beyond.
“A magnificent, deeply moving book.” —Locus

12. Outlander by Diana Gabaldon - 1992

Book 1 of 8 in the Outlander series
Scottish Highlands, 1945. Claire Randall, a former British combat nurse, is just back from the war and reunited with her husband on a second honeymoon when she walks through a standing stone in one of the ancient circles that dot the British Isles. Suddenly she is a Sassenach—an “outlander”—in a Scotland torn by war and raiding clans in the year of Our Lord… 1743.
Claire is catapulted into the intrigues of a world that threatens her life, and may shatter her heart. Marooned amid danger, passion, and violence, Claire learns her only chance of safety lies in Jamie Fraser, a gallant young Scots warrior. What begins in compulsion becomes urgent need, and Claire finds herself torn between two very different men, in two irreconcilable lives.
“Marvelous and fantastic adventures, romance, sex . . . perfect escape reading.” —San Francisco Chronicle

11. Taliesin by Stephen R. Lawhead - 1987

Book 1 of 6 in The Pendragon Cycle
It was a time of legend, when the last shadows of the mighty Roman conqueror fade from the captured Isle of Britain. While across a vast sea, a bloody war shatters a peace that had flourished for two thousand years in the doomed kingdom of Atlantis.
Charis, a princess from Atlantis, escapes the terrible devastation of her land and meets the fabled seer and druid prince Taliesin, singer at the dawn of the age. Their incomparable love joins two astonishing worlds amid the fires of chaos, and spawns the miracles of Merlin and King Arthur.
“Reminiscent of C. S. Lewis . . . Highly recommended.” —Library Journal

10. Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter by Seth Grahame-Smith - 2010

Indiana, 1818. Moonlight falls through the dense woods that surround a one-room cabin, where a nine-year-old Abraham Lincoln kneels at his suffering mother’s bedside. She’s been stricken with something the old-timers call “Milk Sickness.”
“My baby boy…” she whispers before dying.
Only later will the grieving Abe learn that his mother’s fatal affliction was actually the work of a vampire.
When the truth becomes known to young Lincoln, he writes in his journal, “Henceforth my life shall be one of rigorous study and devotion. I shall become a master of mind and body. And this mastery shall have but one purpose. Gifted with his legendary height, strength, and skill with an ax, Abe sets out on a path of vengeance that will lead him all the way to the White House.
While Abraham Lincoln is widely lauded for saving and freeing millions of slaves, his valiant fight against the forces of the undead has remained in the shadows for hundreds of years. That is, until Seth Grahame-Smith stumbled upon The Secret Journal of Abraham Lincoln, and became the first living person to lay eyes on it in more than 140 years.
Using the journal as his guide and writing in the grand biographical style of Doris Kearns Goodwin and David McCullough, Seth has reconstructed the true life story of our greatest president for the first time-all while revealing the hidden history behind the Civil War and uncovering the role vampires played in the birth, growth, and near-death of our nation.
“[T]he funniest, most action-packed and weirdly well-researched account of the Civil War you’ll probably read in a long time. Grahame-Smith could be poised to become the Howard Zinn of vampire-related alterna-history.” ―Vanity Fair

9. His Majesty's Dragon by Naomi Novi - 2006

Book 1 of 10 in the Temeraire series
When HMS Reliant captures a French frigate and seizes its precious cargo (an unhatched dragon egg), fate sweeps Capt. Will Laurence from his seafaring life into an uncertain future—and an unexpected kinship with a most extraordinary creature. Thrust into the rarified world of the Aerial Corps as master of the dragon Temeraire, he will face a crash course in the daring tactics of airborne battle. For as France’s own dragon-borne forces rally to breach British soil in Bonaparte’s boldest gambit, Laurence and Temeraire must soar into their own baptism of fire.
“Terrifically entertaining.” —Stephen King

8. Soulless by Gail Carriger - 2009

Book 1 of 5 in The Parasol Protectorate series
Alexia Tarabotti is laboring under a great many social tribulations. First, she has no soul. Second, she’s a spinster whose father is both Italian and dead. Third, she was rudely attacked by a vampire, breaking all standards of social etiquette.
Where to go from there? From bad to worse, for Alexia accidentally kills the vampire, and then the appalling Lord Maccon (loud, messy, gorgeous, and a werewolf) is sent by Queen Victoria to investigate.
With unexpected vampires appearing and expected vampires disappearing, everyone seems to believe Alexia responsible. Can she figure out what is actually happening to London’s high society? Will her soulless ability to negate supernatural powers prove useful or just plain embarrassing? Finally, who is the real enemy, and do they have treacle tart?
“Carriger debuts brilliantly with a blend of Victorian romance, screwball comedy of manners and alternate history… This intoxicatingly witty parody will appeal to a wide cross-section of romance, fantasy and steampunk fans.” ―Publishers Weekly, starred review

7. Territory by Emma Bull - 2007

Tombstone, Arizona in 1881 is the site of one of the richest mineral strikes in American history, where veins of silver run like ley lines under the earth, a network of power that belongs to anyone who knows how to claim and defend it.
Above the ground, power is also about allegiances. A magician can drain his friends’ strength to strengthen himself, and can place them between him and danger. The one with the most friends stands to win the territory.
Jesse Fox left his Eastern college education to travel West, where he’s made some decidedly odd friends, like the physician Chow Lung, who insists that Jesse has a talent for magic. In Tombstone, Jesse meets the tubercular Doc Holliday, whose inner magic is as suppressed as his own, but whose power is enough to attract the sorcerous attention of Wyatt Earp.
Mildred Benjamin is a young widow making her living as a newspaper typesetter, and—unbeknownst to the other ladies of Tombstone—selling tales of Western derring-do to the magazines back East. Like Jesse, Mildred has episodes of seeing things that can’t possibly be there.
When a failed stage holdup results in two dead, Tombstone explodes with speculation about who attempted the robbery. The truth could destroy Earp’s plans for wealth and glory, and he’ll do anything to bury it. Meanwhile, outlaw leader John Ringo wants the same turf as Earp. Each courts Jesse as an ally, and tries to isolate him by endangering his friends, as they struggle for magical dominance of the territory.
Events are building toward the shootout of which you may have heard. But you haven’t heard the whole, secret story until you’ve read Emma Bull’s unique take on an American legend, in which absolutely nothing is as it seems…
“Emma Bull is really good.” —Neil Gaiman

6. The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O. by Neal Stephenson & Nicole Galland - 2017

The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O. is brilliant, fast-paced, and will give you sore wrists because it’s a thick, heavy book, but you will not want to put it down.
An expert in ancient languages is hired by a mysterious government agency to translate some documents that suggest that magic actually once existed in the world. But the advance of science caused magic to disappear in 1851. However, the existence of a two-hundred-year-old witch and some fancy technology allow a limited amount of magic to occur in this world, and soon the language expert and others are being sent back in time to repair history. And, if they’re lucky, bring magic back to the world.
“Quantum physics, witchcraft, and multiple groups with conflicting agendas, playfully mixed with vernacular from several centuries and a dizzying number of acronyms, create a fascinating experiment in speculation and metafiction that never loses sight of the human foibles and affections of its cast.” —Publishers Weekly

5. The Golem and the Jinni by Helene Wecker - 2013

Chava is a golem, a creature made of clay, brought to life to by a disgraced rabbi who dabbles in dark Kabbalistic magic and dies at sea on the voyage from Poland. Chava is unmoored and adrift as the ship arrives in New York harbor in 1899.
Ahmad is a jinni, a being of fire born in the ancient Syrian desert, trapped in an old copper flask, and released in New York City, though still not entirely free.
Ahmad and Chava become unlikely friends and soul mates with a mystical connection. This debut novel weaves strands of Yiddish and Middle Eastern literature, historical fiction and magical fable into an inventive tale.
“[A] spellbinding blend of fantasy and historical fiction.” —Publishers Weekly

4. Soldier of the Mist by Gene Wolfe - 1986

Latro is a Roman mercenary who receives a head injury that deprives him of his short-term memory. In return it gives him the ability to converse with supernatural creatures, gods and goddesses who invisibly inhabit the ancient landscape.
“[A] wonder, yes, a genius.” ―The Washington Post Book World on Gene Wolfe

3. The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud - 2003

Book 1 of 4 in the Bartimaeus series
I’m a huge Jonathan Stroud fan, and this is the book that got me hooked.
Nathaniel is eleven-years-old and a magician’s apprentice, learning the traditional art of magic. All is well until he has a life-changing encounter with Simon Lovelace, a magician of unrivaled ruthlessness and ambition. When Lovelace brutally humiliates Nathaniel in public, Nathaniel decides to speed up his education, teaching himself spells far beyond his years.
With revenge on his mind, he masters one of the toughest spells of all and summons Bartimaeus, a five-thousand-year-old snarky djinni, to assist him. But summoning Bartimaeus and controlling him are two different things entirely, and when Nathaniel sends the djinni out to steal Lovelace’s greatest treasure, the Amulet of Samarkand, he finds himself caught up in a whirlwind of magical espionage, murder, and rebellion.

2. Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell by Susanna Clarke - 2004

In the year 1806, in the midst of the Napoleonic Wars, most people believe magic to have long since disappeared from England, until the reclusive Mr Norrell reveals his powers and becomes a celebrity overnight. Another practicing magician emerges: the young and daring Jonathan Strange. He becomes Norrell’s pupil and the two join forces in the war against France. But Strange is increasingly drawn to the wildest, most perilous forms of magic and soon he risks sacrificing not only his partnership with Norrell, but everything else he holds dear.
“Immense, intelligent, inventive… Clarke is a restrained and witty writer with an arch and eminently readable style.” ―Entertainment Weekly

1. Kindred by Octavia E. Butler - 1979

Kindred is an astonishing, fantastic book. Author Butler is a master. This book is often considered science fiction, but it easily could be called fantasy.
Dana, a modern black woman, is celebrating her twenty-sixth birthday with her new husband when she is snatched abruptly from her home in California and transported to the antebellum South. Rufus, the white son of a plantation owner, is drowning, and Dana has been summoned to save him. Dana is drawn back repeatedly through time to the slave quarters, and each time the stay grows longer, more arduous, and more dangerous until it is uncertain whether or not Dana’s life will end, long before it has a chance to begin.
“Truly terrifying… A book you’ll find hard to put down.” —Essence
Blog link
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We Need To Get Ready For It

The much-anticipated "blue wave" failed to materialize this election, and party leadership is already blaming progressives. Their message will inevitably reach public consciousness through liberal corporate media. A grand narrative will form on the national level: that Democrats have lost ground because their association with progressives allowed the "socialist" fearmongering to stick.
We need to prepare for the inevitable barrage of finger-pointing. While they celebrate Biden's frighteningly narrow victory, we must refine our talking points to counter theirs. And yes, it is unfortunately true that they will be the ones setting the narrative and we will be the ones reacting/responding to it. We do not control the media, the 1% do.


Hammer the following points:
  1. All Progressives held on to their seats in the House of Representatives. This is true even for swing districts. The only Democrats who lost reelection were centrists who opposed Medicare For All.

  1. Progressive ballot initiatives are winning everywhere. Florida voted for $15 minimum wage even though Biden lost there. A handful of states voted to decriminalize marijuana (and Oregon in particular decriminalized all drugs). Arizona voted for taxing the rich to support public schools.

  1. Fox News polls also show 72% support for government-run healthcare. The same polls indicate majority support for bold climate policy and more government action to help the people. "We can't trust polls anymore." Then put these policies as ballot initiatives for the people to vote on directly. Wanna bet?

  1. It turns out policies that actually appeal to the people's needs are very popular. Who would have thought? Democrats should be the party that embraces these policies and firmly stands for them. Stop cowering at the "socialist" label, which Republicans will call you regardless of how moderate you are. Grow a damn spine.

  1. A key lesson to be learned from this election: pointing out how terrible your opponent is is not an effective winning strategy. Democrats, for the most part, ran on a platform of reversing the damage Trump has done and what did they get? Biden will barely eke out a victory, they lost several seats in the House, and might not gain control of the Senate.
We all saw how Jon Ossoff eviscerated David Perdue during their debate, calling out how Perdue profited from COVID while allowing his constituents to die from it. Perdue seemed like he should have lost in a landslide from that alone, and yet he still got more votes than Ossoff.
Dems still have a shot at controlling the Senate (through Georgia's runoffs), so let's try a strategy that actively incentivizes people to vote for you, not just against your competitor. Try offering policies that actually appeal to the people: raising the minimum wage, universal healthcare, free college, etc. By all means, expose the opponents' failings, but know that that's not gonna be enough.

Dems better learn the right lessons quick and set the course accordingly. They better not squander this opportunity to win the Senate (because if it's 50-50, Kamala will be the deciding vote).

  1. May this election serve as a warning to Dems: Close to half of the voters chose an incompetent fascist. We have to start winning people over or the country will descend further into fascism when a more competent one presents himself in four years.
Democrats are already blaming the voters, saying "that's just how deeply racist the country is." Perhaps so, but this is the country that elected a black man named Barrack Hussein Obama twice. Even if we assume that huge swathes of Americans are racist, they might still vote for you in spite of their racism if you have a message of hope and progress -- like Obama did.
Exposing the other side's failings is not gonna be enough. Woke signalling with rainbows and BLM stickers is not gonna be enough. Offer them ideas to address their economic needs. And make sure you actually talk about these policies often, not just put them on your website. You need to make it clear that you stand for these policies and the other party does not.
4 years, Dems.
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March 2020 Sky Islands Traverse (Abridged)

In March 2020 I attempted the Sky Islands Traverse, and covered most of the route with some significant bypasses and discontinuities. Finally got around to finishing a report which I wanted to share since this is not a route you hear much about. (And yes, in hindsight many of my activities were ill-advised during a pandemic (hitchhiking, etc.), but I simply didn't realize it at the time.)

Background

Where: The Sky Islands Traverse (SkIT) is 500-and-some mile route connecting 10 "sky island" mountain ranges in southeastern Arizona, mostly within the Coronado National Forest, as well as a long section of the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area. Aside from the creator Brett Tucker's initial thru in 2010, I only found evidence of two other complete hikes by Dirtmonger and Not a Chance. The two links above provide fantastic narrative about the route's terrain, flora, and fauna so I won't spend much time reiterating that. Especially Tucker's photo journal is really worth reading through if you are interested in the route (he is a much better writer than I).
When: 2020-03-16 to 2020-04-12. 28 days including 1 zero
Distance: 460 miles. 62,000 ft gross elevation gain
Final Route Overview Map
Conditions: A couple of rain storms, but overall fantastic conditions prevailed. Average weather was sunny and warm, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Overall low temp recorded by my thermometer was 34.2 F at 8900' in the Pinaleños.
In addition to the great weather, most water sources were gushing due to abundant winter rains. Almost every source listed in Tucker's data book was usable, and I came across many more flowing sources and stock tanks that were not listed at all.
Lighterpack: https://lighterpack.com/8c8bct
Unused items marked with red star
Photo Album: https://imgur.com/a/bKezHIM

Overview

This was my first thru hike. It appealed to me because it was the right distance and season and connected a lot of fascinating terrain and historical sites. I planned the route in great detail and included "escape hatches" in case the main route proved too difficult. Ultimately, I did use almost every bypass and shortcut, resulting in an "abridged" traverse. The limiting factor was very slow travel through rough terrain eating into my time budget.
I think many people would call this an "advanced" hike. But my impression now is that it kind of maximizes one factor (route difficulty), while the other factors are not that bad. Bug pressure, climate, resupply interval, and cell service are all pretty favorable. But I can understand why the SkIT would not appeal to most hikers given all the other amazing well developed trails. Land access is another issue that might concern the more law-abiding hiker, since this is not an "official" route with negotiated access rights. There are more than a few fences and "no tresspassing" signs along the way, although there's also little chance of encountering anyone who would care.

Navigation

I prepared paper maps for the entire route with CalTopo, using a combination of Tucker's data book and GPS track, and AZT info and GET info since the alignment of those trails has changed a bit since the SkIT was first published. I found Skurka's tips for printing maps quite useful, going with the "Forest Service" preset layer, double sided 11x17" at 1:36000 printed by Fedex. In practice, 1:36000 was too small to figure out where to go in some parts and I had to fall back to digital maps on my phone. Next time I would print larger scale maps, just for the non-AZT sections.

Report

Dragoons (Cochise Stronghold to river, 2 days)

I flew into TUS and took the bus downtown to buy some fuel (don't rely on Miller Surplus for LPG fuel). Then took an Uber to the start at Cochise Stronghold - the road was passable except for some water crossings which were a little too deep for the Honda Accord - so I walked the last mile to the trailhead. Trail was nice and easy until the very first XC section towards Council Rocks. In what would ultimately be the most frustrating XC of the whole trip, I spent a couple hours wading through thick brush unsuccessfully trying to find the pictographs. I'm still not sure how I missed it since there is apparently a popular trail leading to the site, but eventually I found myself at the next waypoint so I just continued on. Slavin Gulch would be the last water source before reaching the San Pedro, and luckily water was abundant there.
The XC through Smith Wash was very straightforward and fairly pleasant, with numerous shady trees to rest under. It would set the scene for many future wash slogs, where can you choose between soft sand of the wash bottom, or the firm but brushy banks. Saw my first ever rattlesnake in the wash, and also saw my first border patrol agent parked along AZ 80. Made it to the river after sunset on a very long day 2.

San Pedro River (river to Nicksville, 2 days)

Awoke at 5 AM when rising winds collapsed the tarp on top of me (still a tarp newbie). Found that the river was relatively deep and swift, very unlike the lazy intermittently flowing waters I expected from pictures. Combined with threatening weather, I decided to walk the railroad grade along the west bank rather than the river bottom. The monotonous dreary setting, high winds, and coarse gravel of the railroad grade made for poor hiking, but it seemed a lot faster than navigating the river, and I needed to make miles on the first half of this route. I had marked a lot of historic sites on my map north of Fairbank, but missed most of them since I stayed on the west bank. Fairbank itself was shuttered due to COVID, so I continued on dirt roads to the historic Boquillas Ranch. Among the historic buildings there, there is also a newly constructed barn/garage (empty and unlocked), where I took refuge from the wind to eat lunch. Soon after, it started pouring rain, so I ended up staying the night there.
Continued from there on the occasionally marked San Pedro Trail. South of Millville/Charleston, I finally found a favorable section of the river to navigate, where much of the vegetation on the bank was flattened (by flooding I assume). Got back on the San Pedro Trail south of Escapule Rd, and from there the trail is well defined, although it's mostly wide open 2-track roads covered in manure, and therefore vastly inferior to the lush oasis of the river itself. San Pedro House was also closed due to COVID, but I later crossed paths with the site hosts, who informed me that you actually need a $2/night permit to camp in the RNCA. But they basically implied I shouldn't worry about it, so I'm still not sure how you camp here legally. The Miller Backcountry site is the only establisted site in the RNCA, but aside from having a bear box and pit toilet it is no more attractive than any other place - so I pushed on, and finally camped at the very end of the trail amid a cacophony of coyotes and dogs.
Once you cross Hereford Rd, you're basically walking past houses until you find singletrack again in Hunter Canyon, so definitely plan your rest stops accordingly. The 3 Canyons road walk is a private road blocked by a gated fence. There was more than a few cars going by but no one seemed interested in me. Met up with dantimmerman for a few hours before I headed up into the mountains 👍. The Nicksville Dollar General is a viable resupply point, although pretty much all the "real" food was sold out due to virus panic.

Huachucas (Nicksville to Patagonia, 3 days)

The trail up towards Miller Peak was a nice climb and surely a popular day hiking spot, and at high elevations there was patchy snow. Wild turkey and deer were abundant along this gorgeous trail, which at times somehow reminded me of the Appalachians. Started getting pain in my achilles which would persist for another week. But I eventually hobbled into Patagonia, where I got a hotel room and resupplied at the Market. I checked out the upscale grocery too, but didn't find much there that I like to eat while backpacking.

Santa Ritas (Patagonia to Vail, 2 days)

Split from the AZT onto Temporal Gulch Trail #595, which was in spectacular condition, especially in the upper sections near Josephine Saddle. It was actually a little difficult to pick up near the lower trailhead, but once you get going the right way it's a great hike: cairns, fresh signage, fresh tread, branches trimmed back for wide open passage, and even the shin daggers had their tips trimmed! Crest Trail #144 up to Baldy Saddle is in great condition, with a few inches of snow in late March. Did not summit Mt. Wrightson because I was at Baldy Saddle at 4 PM and wanted to get to lower elevations to camp. Beyond Baldy Saddle, the trails are easily followable but very overgrown and covered with blowdown in some spots. After descending the switchbacks on the East Sawmill Trail #146, the trail opens up and is easier. Going around Wrightson would be my biggest day of the trip at 26 mi, and also my first time night hiking (terrifying and exhilarating being watched by disembodied eyes).
Back on the AZT, things are easy, although this stretch into Vail was the most water-poor of any section on the SkIT for me.

Rincons (Vail to Italian Spring TH, 2 days)

Some other AZT hikers and I were blessed with incredible trail magic just before hitting Saguaro NP (full dinner, breakfast, oreos+milk!). And I even picked up a trail name ("spaceman").
If you want to camp inside Saguaro NP, Grass Shack CG looked decent, but Manning Camp was cold and windy and probably not a good bet in early spring. I did not camp in the NP so I don't know how the permit experience is. No other surprises on the AZT through the Rincons.

Santa Catalinas (Italian Spring TH to San Pedro River, 3 days)

Crossing into Molino Basin, there were many day hikers about (and I finally had that first experience of smelling people before seeing or hearing them). Due to foot pain, I decided to skip all the "inner Catalina" miles between Molino Basin and Summerhaven, and instead take a zero in town. But, I had prepared three resupply boxes in advance for the second half of the trip and sent them all to the Summerhaven PO, so I had to get up there before they closed for the weekend. Luckily, I managed to hitch a ride with a very kind woman up to the PO and then all the way back down into Tucson.
From Summerhaven, the route starts out on some trails which are not on the FS map, but do have tracks in MapBuildeOSM up to Bigelow. These trails do exist in reality, and there were many footprints in the snow to follow. From Bigelow TH to San Pedro Vista, there are well defined trails since it is actually now an official AZT Wilderness Bypass Route. There is no need to bushwhack down from Barnum Rock/Leopold Point like the reference route suggests.
The Brush Corral Trail #19 has seen some recent maintenance and is followable. Notably, from the Shortcut Trail #21A junction, there is extensive flagging with red, white, and blue streamers, and many parts have had the brush trimmed back for easy passage. There was one small section around a bump in the ridge where I lost the flagging and had to forge my way around, but on the other side of the bump the flagging picked up again to show the way. Once the dense brush peters out, the lower section of the trail is in great condition with clear trail and signage all the way down to the TH.
Here begins the longest water carry on the trip, out to Redfield Canyon. I carried 4 liters, which was sufficient, and I didn't see any other potential sources in between.
From Redington Rd, the reference route goes down a wash to the river bed under the bridge. Be aware that there is fence across the wash and another at the bridge which were a bit tricky to get around. Unless you really hate road walks, it might be better to just stay on Redington Rd north to the intersection and avoid all the fences.

Galiuros (San Pedro River to Klondyke, 4 days)

Despite lacking the grand rock formations or vistas of the other ranges, the Galiuros became my favorite section, due to the unique challenges, the total isolation, and the haunting history.
The trail down to the cliff house is cairned and straightforward, but I got excited when I saw the river and accidentally left the trail early and ended up doing a very sketchy scramble. Follow the cairns carefully and this should be an easy trail down to the canyon bottom. The cliff house itself is cool and totally worth a visit - and there is another access trail from the south side of the canyon.
The boulder scrambling in upper Redfield Canyon was an enjoyable, unique experience, and one of the highlights of the trip for me. In the photo journal, Tucker suggests an alternative route around the boulders, but I would just keep that as a backup. There were only two spots I took off my backpack to toss it up ahead on a climb, and overall it did not seem too difficult or risky. I suppose things coulds get rearranged by floodwaters though, so YMMV.
West Divide Trail #289 basically does not exist any more up until Kielberg Tank. There are occasionally cairns and faint tracks to follow but be prepared here for essentially XC routefinding. After Kielberg, and especially after Power's Cabin, the trail is well defined to the junction with Powers Garden Trail #96. At that point, the reference route keeps following the West Divide Trail out to Grassy Ridge, but it did not look promising to me. I took the easy way down to Rattlesnake Creek, and that really is a pleasant hike up to Powers Garden. Powers Garden Trail #96 continues to be easy to follow all the way up Powers Hill.
In Klondyke, I picked up a resupply box forwarded from Summerhaven. There are instructions in the GET town guide for how to send packages here (as there is no post office), and this method still works fine. But as always, pick up your package! The woman who owns the store where you send packages has to deal with uncollected boxes every year and I'm sure it's annoying. When I came through, there were 4 other boxes and 3 were past the ETA date. Had a wonderful stay at the Horsehead Lodge, although the front porch of the BLM office looked quite hospitable for a free option.

Santa Teresas (Klondyke to Klondyke Rd, 1 day)

I took the GET Buford Hill alternate route, having had my fill of bad trail in the Galiuros, so unfortunately I can't report on this section too much. There is an updated GET route that I mapped as an option rather than the outdated reference SkIT route. Thankfully my feet were fully hardened after leaving Klondyke, and I had no more pain for the rest of the trip.

Pinaleños (Klondyke Rd to I-10, 4 days)

Past Underwood Canyon, had a little uncertainty finding the correct ridge to XC up from Two Troughs to Tripp Canyon, but there are some cairns leading the way and it's clear many GETers have been through. Finding the way down on the other side is also tricky because many stock paths lead south away from the drainage. I pushed through a long day to get to Tripp Canyon because I thought it would be a nice campsite, but it wasn't - do not plan on camping here. Tucker's literature mentions "car camping sites" but the reality is more like "ravaged weekend bonfire party sites". I found an OK spot to camp, but most of this area is littered with broken glass, toilet paper, and tire tracks, and many of the trees have had entire limbs hacked off. This was also the only place I ever encountered abundant mosquitoes.
Next day I took the GET Sawmill-Blue Jay bypass route, which was a surprisingly pleasant and wide path following a black plastic pipeline, up until the short XC which was also easy once you pick the right drainage to go up. There were several car campers at Dry Lake stock tank, which seemed much more pleasant than Tripp Canyon. Then followed FR 286 all the way up to West Peak, skipping the Blue Jay Ridge trail. Had lunch at West Peak with the first and only GETer I would encounter. His account of the Teresas route made me glad I had bypassed.
Clark Peak Trail #301 was in moderate condition, deteriorating substantially in some steeper sections after Taylor Pass due to fire damage. But overall is it cairned and flagged well enough to follow without a map. Spent a windy night at Riggs Lake, and then ended up staying on the road (Swift Trail) all the way to Ladybug Saddle. There was patchy but substantial snow cover at higher elevations, and the trail from Chesley Flat to Webb Peak was not discernable (ended up taking FR 88 up and down to tag the high point). I had wanted to investigate conditions on Round the Mountain Trail #302, but even FR 508 looked snowed in and covered in blowdown, so I took the easy way down Swift Trail, which was cleared of snow all the way to Ladybug Saddle. Road walking the Swift Trail 366 would not be pleasant from Shannon CG to Ladybug Saddle if there had been significant car traffic. There are no shoulders in many places, so luckily there was almost no traffic this time of year.
Bear Canyon Trail #299 is not marked from Ladybug Peak and a bit hard to pick up. But once you find it off the west slope of the peak it is pretty easy to follow all the way down to the highway. There are many intersecting stock paths in the lower flatter section of the trail that can trick you, but there are numerous cairns to help guide the way. Look for a couple of stiles to cross the fence along AZ 266 to get down to Stockon Pass Wash, and from there the XC route to Gillespie Wash was quite pleasant and scenic. Gillespie Wash is pretty nice too, but the detour around Jernigan Ranch involved a couple of questionable fence crossings.
XC between Little Cottonwood Canyon and Willow Spring is passable, although it's deceptively steep and exhausting. As usual, the challenge is in picking the right ridge. Since I had to go into Willcox for a package, I rerouted south on the gas pipeline road just west of US 191, then took N Monk Ranch Rd out to the interstate junction. While walking the pipeline road, I almost had a heart attack when a single engine PIPELINE PATROL plane passed low overhead from behind. There's plenty of traffic at exit 352, and I hitched a ride into Willcox in about an hour. Picked up my package forwarded from Summerhaven, and got a couple beers and a hotel room.

Dos Cabezas (I-10 to Fort Bowie, 2 days)

Going out of Willcox, there is not as much traffic going east at exit 340, but I still had luck here, and hitched a ride back to exit 355 in about an hour. Between I-10 and the mountains, there was a locked gate near the interstate and two fences to scramble under after leaving the dirt road. Up in the Dos Cabezas, the cattle really did seem to be a different breed, much more athletic and less afraid of humans. Some of them were not interested in moving to let me through so I had to detour around them.
Fortunately, unlike in other mountains, the "faint trails" and "stock paths" (as described by Tucker) in the Dos Cabezas are actually followable in many places. Near Happy Camp Canyon there was actually evidence of trail maintenance through the catclaw thickets. But finding the way up Tar Box Canyon to the wilderness boundary was tricky for me. Especially past Cedar Log Spring there are many forking drainages to entice you in the wrong direction. Once you cross the pass and catch the road, it's smooth sailing down to Apache Pass (other than 1 locked gate). Ft. Bowie is a well curated historic site where you can easily spend a couple hours if you like reading interpretive signs. The visitors center has good developed water out front, and from there you can follow Old Fort Bowie Rd back to the reference route.
At the Ft. Bowie trailhead I happened to run into a couple travelling the country in their truck camper, who graciously shared their beer, gin, wine, and delicious organic food.

Chiricahuas (Fort Bowie to Portal, 3 days)

Emigrant Canyon Trail #255 is moderately difficult to follow in places, but you can always fall back to walking in the wash. If you want to closely watch your GPS, the MapBuildeOSM track does a pretty good job of following the easiest path. From Emigrant Pass up through Wood Canyon the walking is pretty nice, with some evidence of trail maintenance/realignment. Near Wood Canyon Park things get hairy: fire has destroyed the trail and the terrain in general. Be very careful to follow the correct ridge because there are many forking drainages that lured me well off route. This is now very difficult XC but at least not exposed. Difficult conditions continue until the pass under Cochise Head, where there is actually signage and a followable path down to Indian Creek. Trail #253 down Indian Creek is a very pleasant trail, and kinda fun when going through the canyon "narrows".
FR 356 actually takes a little searching to pick up from Indian Creek. It is almost just singletrack in a few sections since the road to Hands Pass is now impassable for any vehicles.
Shaw Peak Trail #251 is difficult to follow straight away, but there are a few hints and cairns. Once you start traversing the steep slope, the trail disappears completely into burned and eroded terrain. This traverse up to the ridge is very difficult and exposed. I was up near the ridge as a hailstorm rolled in, making my situation unreasonably dangerous. After gaining the ridge, the path becomes followable but still eroded and burned. When the path comes to a gate in a fence, go through the gate and follow the fence from the south side even though the path appears to stay on the north side of the fence.
I went down to Iron Springs to escape the bad weather for the night, via trail #366, which is in good shape at least down to the spring. Light rain continued into the night, and I think a mountain lion came to visit based on the terrifying sounds that woke me up. The prospect of putting on my cold wet pants the next morning kept me in bed until 10 AM, but eventually I mustered the courage and got going. Continuing south from Jhus Horse Saddle, #251 is in good shape and easy to follow.
I bailed out at FR 42 and followed that all the way into Portal. The previous two days had pushed the risk level beyond my tolerance and I wasn't excited about rolling the dice on another 25 miles of trail that might not be passable. Someday I would like to go back to see Chiricahua Peak and Silver Peak - I only had a taste of what this range has to offer but it was exhilarating.
Portal typically is overrun with birders in April, but I was able to walk in and get a room at the lodge. I hired someone from the Tucson craigslist rideshare to get back to the airport, although in typical years there would be a lot more car traffic through here and hitching back into the transit network might be feasible.
Finally, I found that chiricahuatrails.com has fresh, detailed information on the entire Chiricahua trail network, so you can fill the gaps I left with that great resource.

Gear Notes

This was the first big test for a lot of my gear, including the pack, tarp, and pad, and I had no major problems.
TL;DR: Walked at least a little bit through all 10 mountain ranges of the traverse, but skipped some of the harder bits due to foot pain and general laziness. Saw a whole lotta cows, and some snakes, turkeys, javelinas, and deer. Got soaked in a hailstorm on top of a ridge and noped out but generally had a blast exploring some of the most isolated places I've ever been.
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What A Day: Stark, Naked Ballots by Sarah Lazarus & Crooked Media (09/22/20)

"The president in the next week or so will be laying out his vision for health care... in the coming, I would say, two weeks." - Kayleigh McEnany and the Very Real, Not Made Up Health Care Plan

The Young And The Reckless

The official U.S.coronavirus death toll has soared past 200,000, President Trump continues to aggressively not give a shit, and in an enigma that historians will puzzle over for centuries to come, this is still shaping up to be a close election.
It is decidedly Not Great that thanks to decisions like these, the national caseload is once again growing as we head into the colder months.
Each dizzying coronavirus milestone is a reminder of the new normal we’ve been asked to accept, and of the collective mourning we’ve been denied—because the crisis isn’t over, because the president is a psychopath, because it would require a national reckoning. We can be sad about that, or we can channel that sadness into rage, and then action. 41 days.

Look No Further Than The Crooked Media

Happy National Voter Registration Day! If you read this newsletter, we assume you're already registered to vote. But now’s a great time to double check that you’re still registered at https://votesaveamerica.com/verify. This is especially important if you’ve moved since the last election, changed your name, live in a suppress-y state, or if you haven’t voted in a while. It's fast, it's easy, do it right now.
Once you’ve checked yourself, make sure your friends and family have verified their registration as well. Then head to https://votesaveamerica.com/everylast vote for volunteer opportunities to get new voters registered, and to donate to Register2Vote!

Under The Radar

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s ruling on “naked ballots” could land us in a huge post-election mess. Philadelphia’s top election official has warned that the court’s recent ruling, which invalidates ballots submitted without first being placed in secrecy envelopes, could spoil over 100,000 votes across the state. Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by all of 40,000 votes in 2016, so this is what we in the voting biz would call “clusterfuck conditions,” which could lead to a messy post-election legal battle reminiscent of the one in Florida in 2000. Pennsylvania’s GOP-controlled legislature isn’t likely to remedy this (because Republicans think spoiling your ballot is good for them) so our best bet is voter education: If you have family and friends in Pennsylvania, make sure they know to use the secrecy envelope. If you haven’t yet adopted a state, it’s a great day to commit to help save Pennsylvania.

What Else?

Sen. Mitt “Black Lives Matter” Romney (R-UT) wants the Senate to vote on President Trump’s yet-to-be-announced Supreme Court nominee, which means Mitch McConnell has locked up the votes he needs to confirm * someone * even though nobody knows who Trump will actually pick—almost as if Republicans only really care about ruling without the consent of the governed in perpetuity. (It looks increasingly likely that he’ll pick Amy Coney Barrett, though.)
Joe Biden refused to answer whether he would be open to expanding the Supreme Court if Republicans jam through a nomination, for a solid enough reason: “Let me tell you why I’m not going to answer that question. Because it will shift the focus, that’s what he wants, he never wants to talk about the issue at hand and he always tries to change the subject.”
The FDA is set to announce tougher standards for emergency authorization of a coronavirus vaccine that would make it all but impossible for the administration to approve a vaccine before the election, so long as the Trump administration doesn’t override the FDA entirely, which would kinda give the game away.
A top-secret CIA assessment concluded that Vladimir Putin and his top aides are “probably directing” a disinformation campaign meant to help Trump win the election. Anyway, here’s Trump holding up his end of the bargain with a persuasive “uhhhh” when asked who he thinks poisoned Alexei Navalny.
The mayor of Louisville, KY, has declared a state of emergency ahead of a grand jury’s decision in Breonna Taylor’s case, and the city’s police have canceled all days off.
The University of California system wrongly admitted at least 64 wealthy students over the last six years, which is still not as bad as Harvard University admitting one Jared Kushner in 384 years.
Here it is, the most 2020 company that ever 2020’d: the gig economy, but for evictions.
Mel Gibson, who still has a career for some reason, is reportedly making a sequel to The Passion of the Christ. Passion of the Christ II: Oops, All Antisemitism!
Had a tough day? Need to unwind? Pour yourself a glass of merlot and let John Boehner’s book cover tell you about the time it met Frank Sinatra down at the racetrack.

Be Smarter

Senior congressional staffers believe that voters are much more conservative than they actually are. Researchers sent a survey to the chiefs of staff and legislative directors of every House and Senate office, who are largely responsible for setting lawmakers’ legislative agendas. The survey asked staffers to estimate public support in their own districts or states for five policy proposals, and the results found them to be way off base: Staffers from both parties significantly underestimated public support for progressive proposals. Lobbyists, to everyone’s shock and surprise, seem to be the main source of the problem: Offices that reported more reliance on special interest groups for policy-making, or received more money from corporate interests, had a much worse understanding of their constituencies. Let this be a reminder to keep on calling your reps, who will otherwise continue picturing you as Ronald Reagan with a gun.

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Is That Hope I Feel?

Mike Bloomberg has raised more than $6 million to pay the court fines and fees of nearly 32,000 Black and Hispanic Florida voters with felony convictions. (Seems like he could’ve just written a check, but listen, we’ll take it.)
North Carolina election officials have agreed to extend the deadline for absentee ballots and set up ballot drop-off stations. (Seems like that shouldn’t have required a lawsuit, but listen, we’ll take it.)
A whopping 750,000 (presumably young) people have now registered to vote through Snapchat.
The first large scale coronavirus-sniffing dog trial is upon us.

Enjoy

jordan on Twitter: "oh to be a duckling falling asleep with a flower on it’s head"
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